Political Lowdown -- The Republicans

Mitt Romney

Where he is: In constant political flux. He's the ultimate panderer, a flip-flopper of such magnitude that he makes John Kerry look like George W. Bush. When Romney was Governor of Massachusets, he said stuff like "I'm going to be more liberal than Ted Kennedy" when it came to gay rights issues. He was also pro-choice until some point during his governorship (err... when he decided to run for President), when he turned straight-ahead pro-life. He's basically a political chameleon; whatever room he's in, whoever he's speaking to that day, that's whose side he's on.

At all times, Mitt Romney looks like he either 1) just strolled in off the golf course, or 2) just strolled in from a board meeting. Mike Huckabee had a great line: "Do you want to elect a guy who looks like a guy you work with, or the guy who just laid you off?" Perfect. That's exactly how he comes across. I would say that's how he "is", but who knows how Mitt Romney "is"? Just depends on which day you ask him. The biggest thing that Romney has going for him with conservatives is that he "presents well", or "looks Presidential". Which is true -- he looks dapper in his suit, his hair is immaculate, he speaks well, he sounds intelligent, and is generally likeable (although I think he looks like a weatherman muppet). It's also his biggest drawback to independents, because his "perfect" look makes him seem phony.

By the way, I don't care what they tell the pollsters, there's no way that Southern Baptist evangelicals are going to vote for a Mormon. They're just not. Especially when there's a former Baptist minister also in the race.

How he got there: He came in a relatively close second in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and will probably win Michigan (where his father was a prominent politician). He stands little chance in South Carolina. He's gotten to where he is by saying the right things and looking the right way. He hasn't gotten over the hump into being a true frontrunner because 1) he's a Mormon, and 2) people like him, but they don't trust him.

What he needs to do to win the nomination: One of the moments when I actually sort of liked him was during the down-time of a filmed radio interview, when he didn't know that cameras were still rolling. The interviewer had asked him an offensive question about being a Mormon just before they went to a commercial, and Romney flat tore the guy a new one. He actually looked like a human by showing some passion and toughness, which seemed much more real since he didn't know he was being taped. That's the only way he can win (short of starting a sect of Mormon Baptists), is to seem more like a regular person instead of the immaculate politician.

Mike Huckabee

Where he is: Wow, what a story this guy is. A virtual nobody a few months ago, with practically no money or "political machine", he surged ahead like crazy and demolished Romney and everybody else in Iowa. He came in third in New Hampshire, which was expected since he is running strictly as "The Christian Candidate", and has very little support from independents. I expect him to win the South Carolina primary, and to take many Southern states on February 5.

How he got there: What?? A conservative Christian with a sense of humor?? He's like a some new species of pygmie monkey (evolution pun intended) -- people thought they existed, but nobody had ever seen one. He impressed me long ago by being one of the few politicians -- especially Republicans -- who were able to have multiple appearances on both Jon Stewart's and Stephen Colbert's shows, and do really well. He also did a political ad with Chuck Norris which was well done and very effective, using the Chuck Norris jokes (stuff like "Under his beard, Chuck Norris doesn't have a chin. He has another fist."), with Chuck Norris onscreen with him to give an endorsement. He even had Chuck Norris onstage with him at his Iowa acceptance speech.

He got where he is today -- considered probably the top contender for the nomination -- by being what all politicians covet and strive to be: Likeable. Genuine. Straightforward. He's also circumvented the political system by using "free media" (TV interviews) to get his message across, instead of relying solely on political ads. I have to say, even though I strongly disagree with most of his politics, I actually admire him in a way. Why? Because he's shown he has something else politicians strive for but rarely achieve: balls. Republicans were instructed by the powers-that-be specifically not to go on The Daily Show or The Colbert Report (he was on there again yesterday), because they always make politicians, especially Republicans, look like morons. But he held his own very well, and holds his own in every interview and debate he's ever done. The guy is both funny and fearless, and you have to like that.

What he needs to do to win the nomination: Not let people find out what a religious nut he actually is. The guy was actually one of the candidates who raised his hand at a debate when asked, "Who here doesn't believe in evolution?" Case closed. I don't care how neato you are, if you're going to be so tied to the Christian right as to say you don't believe in evolution, then I'm not voting for you. But as I said, he's running an unabashed campaign as the "Christian candidate", and that huge and powerful base (although not as huge and powerful as it once was) is the only thing that will win him the nomination. He's also not going to win just on being "the funny guy", so he's going to have to show that he has a clear handle on the issues, and is a true conservative Republican on issues like the economy and immigration, where he has been accused of being too liberal. I think he'll have a tough time winning the nomination because of those things, so I'm still holding to my prediction that he'll be someone's Vice Presidential ticket-mate. McCain/Huckabee would be a damned formidable Republican ticket.

John McCain

Where he is: He just came off a nice win in New Hampshire, after coming in third in Iowa. The New Hampshire win isn't quite as big a deal as the media is making it out to be, because it's always been a really strong state for him (he beat Bush there by 18% in 2000), and was pretty much expected to win. At the moment, he's running second to Romney in Michigan, and is expected to make a strong showing in Nevada. South Carolina will be a problem for him, since he'll be running against two Southern Christians, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson, and his unwillingness to kowtow to the religious right always hurts him in Southern states.

While he's running fairly strong at the moment, he's still on pretty thin ice; every state is a "must win" for him, or he may be done for. Which is a shame, because (as I've said probably ten times now), he's the only Republican I would consider voting for.

How he got there: John McCain is known as the "maverick Republican". He had his "Straight Talk Express" tour bus in 2000, and that style has gotten him where he is today. I like him because he always seems to vote his conscience, and doesn't bow to the evangelical Christians or always follow along party lines. He even went so far as to call the religious right "agents of intolerance", which garnered him tons of support among independents but really hurt his standing as a "true conservative". Like Huckabee, I like the fact that he has also been able to go on Jon Stewart's show and do really well, hold his own, have an intelligent, open conversation, and have a sense of humor.

One of his strongest selling points is that he is a war hero, and was a POW in Vietnam. Not only that, but he was offered a chance at being released from the POW camp, and refused to go unless they also released his fellow soldiers. They didn't, so he stayed. That's a man with cojones, conviction, and principles. That, combined with his willingness to stand up for what he believes is right and not be a strict "party loyalist" (although he's too liberal for me on immigration, and too conservative on abortion), as well as his honesty and sense of humor, are what make me say that I would consider voting for him.

What he needs to do to win the nomination: For one thing, get rid of that damn sweater vest! It's kind of endearing in a way, the fact that he could care less about fashion and that sort of thing, but from a purely "focus group" standpoint, that "grandfatherly" look just doesn't work for him. Yes, he is an old guy, but he's just not the grandfatherly type.

As far as real politics goes, he needs to just keep being true to himself and his "maverick" style, because that's what has drawn people to him in the first place. At the beginning of this campaign many months ago, his campaign went into the tank when he decided (after poor advice) to play the politics game and go kiss the evangelical keister by "making nice" with some Christian groups and universities, as well as the gun lobby and other Republican strongholds where he has been hurt in the past. It went terrible for him, because his supporters, as well as his detractors, knew what he was doing and just didn't buy it. McCain had the brains to immediately fire those advisors and revamp his campaign back to his "Straight Talk Express" style, and it has worked well for him ever since. Getting the nomination is still going to be tough for him, though, because he's just not "aesthetically pleasing" like Romney or Huckabee, and isn't a particularly dynamic speaker. He is the Republican who is most qualified to be President, though, so I hope he can find a way to get the win. I think an Obama vs. McCain election would be a good situation for the country to be in come November. Hey, how about an Obama/McCain ticket??

Rudy Giuliani

Where he is: Who knows? He hasn't been seen or heard from in the campaign for weeks. After polling well, doing OK in the debates, and being considered the main frontrunner for months, Giuliani has taken a huge gamble and decided not to campaign in any of the first primaries and caucuses, and save up all his resources for Florida and Feb. 5. This is one of those gambles that will make you look like a genius if you win, or an idiot if you lose. I guess he and his advisors realized he wasn't "down home" enough to win Iowa or Georgia, decided McCain was going to win New Hampshire, and just thought that his campaign would take a worse beating by losing a bunch of early primaries than by not being in the race at all.

How he got there: Rudy Giuliani is the "9/11 candidate", and that's pretty much it. He plays that "America's Mayor" card like it's his trump ace, evoking 9/11 in just about every speech. He's strong on defense, tough on crime, and talks a good game about low taxes and immigration, which Republicans like. But he's a centrist on abortion, which they hate, and I admire him for not changing on his position there. Mostly he's the "wise guy" in the race, making his points by being the loudest voice and being the biggest talker. He's a pretty good speech maker, but not particularly exceptional.

People like the fact that he lowered crime in NYC exponentially while he was Mayor. Personally, on the surface that sounds great, but in the process he turned New York into Disneyland -- "Times Square, brought to you by Taco Bell, co-sponsored by Home Depot and VH-1!" It's pretty disgusting. Also (and this is just my cynical mind), I seriously doubt he was able to lower crime in New York that much without some corroboration with the mob.

What he needs to do to win the nomination: Make sure all the tapes of his appearances on Saturday Night Live, in drag, are destroyed. Once the evangelical Christians get a good dose of that footage, he's a goner.

Ron Paul

Where he is: Always down at the far end podium in the debates, that's where. It's funny how he's always marginalized in the debates, as well as most pundit discussions, yet when he's finally asked a question his answers spark the most interesting discourse of the night. Anyway, he's running last in most polls, either single- or low-double digits.

How he got there: His fervent supporters, who have raised record-breaking amounts of money for him, should be furious that he made almost no showing in New Hampshire, which would have been the best primary state for him to gain momentum. Where has all your money gone, Paul-heads?? Yet another reason why I believe he has little interest in winning the Presidency, and more interest in getting his Libertarian message out. His message has a fairly large (but not large enough in sheer numbers) amount of support, and the supporters he does have are passionate to the point of pure zealotry. They always flood the news-channel voting lines after debates to claim victory for him, and they show up with loud voices anywhere they can.

His message has such popularity mostly because of his "get the government out of my life" views on personal privacy and the economy, most importantly taxes. He is also extremly isolationist when it comes to foreign policy, which I agree with to a degree, in particular his refrain of "How can we say we support Israel when we sell weapons to Israel's enemies?". I agree completely with that statement, though his message there (like many of his policies) seems to ignore certain nuances, and he takes the complexity of some issues far too lightly. His desire to completely wipe out the IRS and many other government agencies sounds great, but it ignores the economic turmoil that type of upheaval would cause in the U.S. and around the world.

He is so marginalized because: 1) He's just unpleasant for fence-riders to watch and listen to; he's high-pitched and whiny, and he always looks uncomfortable and sort of bewildered. His supporters say that that stuff shouldn't matter, and he should be judged solely on his policies. Again, that sounds great, but it's just not based in reality. A President's primary job is to lead people, not just form policy. A true leader has to have the type of dynamic personality to get tens of millions of people to support him/her and follow his/her lead, and Ron Paul just can't do that, and 2) His ideas are so radical that neither the Democratic or the Republican party will truly support him. The best way for Ron Paul supporters to put his message to use is to form a strong Libertarian party that can win House and Senate seats. The Libertarian voice is one that needs to be heard much, much more loudly in American politics, but it would be best served in Congress, not in the White House, and not with Ron Paul. The message is great, and so is the man, but Ron Paul the Presidential candidate is not the way to go.

What he needs to do to win the nomination: Transfer his brain into Mitt Romney's head.

Fred Thompson

I'm only including him here as an afterthought, because he's technically still in the race. But after all the hype several months ago, his campaign has pretty much fallen flat. Republicans like him, he's straight down the party line on virtually every issue, and he's a generally likeable guy with a famous face, but Republicans just don't think he's dynamic enough to beat Obama or Clinton in a general election. And they're right.

His only hope is to win South Carolina, which he's not going to do. I predict that he'll drop out after that race.

Well, there you have it. Both parties in a nutshell as far as I can see. Since the race seems to change almost daily -- just today, Richardson dropped out and John Kerry endorsed Barack Obama (a total flip-flop to the face of John Edwards) -- I'll try and keep writing these things as situations warrant.

Roger