Political Lowdown, Part II -- Post-New Hampshire Democrats

I came home from my gig tonight and turned on MSNBC, expecting to see the New Hampshire primary returns telling me how Barack Obama had beaten Hillary Clinton again, and how there's no stopping him now, etc., etc. But, NOPE. Contrary to every poll up until the hour the voting started, Clinton defeated Obama in a huge comeback win.

So, now what? What does that mean? Cutting through all the hype, it really just means this: a whole bunch of independant voters in New Hampshire decided that John McCain needed their vote on the Republican side more than Obama needed it on the Democratic side. If Obama had only won by a point or two in Iowa, he would have won New Hampshire. If McCain had been way ahead of Romney in the pre-vote New Hampshire polls, Obama would have won New Hampshire. The voters in New Hampshire are famously independant, to the point of being contrarian. That's why McCain won New Hampshire in 2000 over Bush by double-digit numbers. They are rarely ready to anoint a front-runner; most importantly, they want the debate to continue.

In the last 36 hours, the entire vote changed. Here's what happened: 1) Bill Clinton came out angrily against Obama, saying he's "The biggest fairy tale I've ever seen," and gave an emphatic, "Give... me... a... break." 2) Hillary's had her humanizing "teary-eyed moment", allowing people to see her as a person instead of candidate, and 3) Obama looked like a shoo-in winner, and McCain didn't. Independant voters decided it was more important to go vote for McCain over Romney, rather than Obama over Clinton. McCain won by 5%. Obama lost by 3%.

I think they made the right decision. The discourse, the debate, needed for McCain to win more than it needed Obama to win. The Obama-Clinton race on the Democratic side is going to be head-to-head, no matter which one of them won by a small margin in New Hampshire, an even heat that will fluctuate from day to day from now till February 5. On the Republican side there is no clear front-runner, and John McCain needs to be much more involved in the discussion for the Republican voters to decide. The Republican side is a 4-way dead heat when it comes down to it -- Romney, Huckabee, McCain, Giuliani. And since McCain is the only one of them I would even consider voting for, I'm glad to see that he won New Hampshire.

But once again, no matter what the outcome of the vote, Obama seemed to win the night. And once again, as I sat and listened to every word of his concession speech, I was moved. I found myself nodding, smiling, and occasionally chuckling to myself in a "Damn, that dude's good" kind of way. He can work a crowd better than Bill Clinton, which I thought I would never see in my lifetime. The things he says, while still politic-speak, don't seem contrived or written by a "focus group". Hell, even the onstage kiss from his wife seemed genuine -- you could see her say "I love you baby," and they seemed to exchange a small moment. Hillary and Bill, on the other hand, looked like each was hugging a co-worker before a holiday weekend. Obligatory and non-passionate. Obama's speech, with his "yes we can" refrain, was inspiring to the point of certain cynical blogging blowhards (ahem...) finding themselves involuntarily "chokey". When he came out with his "the improbable story that is America" line, followed by all the examples of when the American spirit conquered impossible odds, citing everything from the Westward pioneers of the 1800's to the Civil Rights movement of the 1960's, it really hit home. And like a true orator, he always seems to know when to pull back from the rhetoric just before "Battle Hymn Of The Republic" starts playing in our heads and we cynics start rolling our eyes.

All that said, it's good that Clinton won tonight, and the Clinton camp was right when they said that Obama needs further scrutiny before we anoint him the new "Chosen One." As much of an incredible speech-maker as he is (and Clinton is not), both candidates need a full, complete amount of time "in the fishbowl" before we decide on who is best suited to be the next President. Clinton is inspiring because of who she is -- smart, sharp, a fighter, a survivor, a person who has subsisted on resiliancy for two decades -- not because of how she speaks or how good a "candidate" she is. Obama is inspiring because of what he is, what he says, and how he says it -- he's the ultimate "candidate", but it remains to be seen how good a President he will be.

The next few weeks should be.... something.

Roger