Political Lowdown -- The Democrats

With the political season in full swing now -- the New Hampshire primary is tomorrow -- I felt inspired to give you guys a rundown of the game as I see it right now.

* Quick note: Got Stephen Colbert's book "I Am America, And So Can You!" for Christmas. I expected to be disappointed, because I didn't know if the humor of his show would translate well to book form. But, nope.... It's GREAT. I'm not going to do a big book review or anything, just believe me when I say it's definitely worth a read. Buy it.

Anyway, here's how the Democratic Presidential candidates are shaping up:

Hillary Clinton

Where she is: Trembling in fear and anger at Barack Obama. She lost the Iowa caucus, made even more brutal by getting blown out and coming in third behind John Edwards at 29%. I was wrong on this one -- I thought Obama would maybe eek out a 2- or 3-point win, with the establishment-minded Iowans leaning toward Hillary at the last minute. But she got trounced, and now she's had what some are calling her "Muskie moment" (Muskie cried during the 1972 run, ruining his chances) in New Hampshire. I say that, if she at least comes in a close second to Obama, her teary-eyed moment yesterday will help her, not hurt her.

How she got there: She had such complete confidence in the "Clinton machine" that she underestimated Barack Obama and the voters' true weariness of the Washington politics of the last 40 years. She believed the hype about her being the "inevitable nominee", and now she's scrambling to figure out how to get back on top by February 5 (the real "Super Tuesday" for primaries).

What she needs to win the party nomination: Show everybody that she's human and can be honest and candid. Problem is, it remains to be seen if she's capable of that. She's spent her whole career being "tough" and "businesslike", that I don't know if she has the political ability to make herself endearing to people. One thing that would help -- get Bill to shut up. Good luck with that. One other thing that may could help her a lot -- Chelsea. So far she is giving no interviews, and doing nothing but showing up at Clinton rallies and waving and smiling. But she's a grown-up now, and she should be able to speak her mind and help out. But then again, what if she's a Republican?? Anyway, her getting choked up at an event today really "humanized" her, and could really help her if it's spun right. On any other candidate (especially men), it would be seen as weakness. But for a person who has such a tough reputation, which actually hurts her politically, to be seen as human and really caring about things could be a big boost. I felt something when I saw that that I never thought I could feel -- sorry for Hillary Clinton. I wanted to roll my eyes, but a little bit of me felt like I just made my Mama cry.

Barack Obama

Where he is: Now the frontrunner for the nomination, and riding a wave of enthusiasm that very few have ever seen before. I heard one pundit (Chris Matthews?) say, "He's no longer a candidate. He's a movement." Exactly.

How he got there: Obviously, I'm a politics junkie, and I pay lots of attention to speakers and their styles, and the effect they have on people. But I have to say, I've never seen or heard anybody like Barack Obama, and there's lots of guys that have been in the game for decades who are saying the same thing. Once again, I was wrong on Obama way-back-when. I thought Harold Ford would be the first black President. I thought Barack Obama was too good to be true, and besides that, I thought he would "scare whitey." But it's hard not to watch him speak and not be inspired, no matter what race, sex, or age you are, which is a rare commodity in todays politicians. I felt lucky that I got to hear his entire acceptance speech live after the Iowa vote -- I was dorkily awestruck, and that speech is being called one of his first "MLK moments". HOLY CRAP. That guy's good.

What he needs to do to win the nomination: Not screw up. If he continues the kinds of definitive leads he's got now, he'll barely even have to respond to any Clinton attacks. He can stay above the fray, which is where he seems the most comfortable. He'll have to make sure his wife Michelle's (who may be our first hot first lady...daaamn!) emotions stay in check when she campaigns, because she can be abrasive, and will remind people of First Lady Hillary in the Clintons' first term, which would be a turn-off to voters. He also needs to humanize himself a bit, because he does seem a bit guarded and stuffy. He also has to make sure he doesn't "over-black" it when he campaigns in Iowa, because it could come off as phony. But if he can: 1) convince South Carolina that he's lived a true "African-American experience", not just an international one, and 2) convince black voters that they really have a black candidate who can win, and isn't just a "symbolic candidate" like Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton, he will win the whole thing.

John Edwards

Where he is: In third place, trying as hard as possible to make it to second place by helping Obama attack Clinton. He's stayed vehemently on-point with his populist "I'm for the little guy" stance. It allowed him to beat Clinton by one point in Iowa, but he was really hoping for a win or a close second to Obama to give his campaign some much-needed momentum. If he doesn't do well in New Hampshire, he's probably done, although he may hang on through South Carolina to see if he can win on his home turf. It's probably too little, too late, though. No matter how much of a crush Chris Matthews has on Edwards' wife.

How he got there: As feel-good as his message is, he still comes off as a "limousine liberal". He just looks like a rich guy (because he is), and it's just too hard to buy his "I'll fight for you poor people" message. He may be completely sincere, but it just doesn't come off that way. And perception is reality when it comes to politics.

What he needs to do to win the nomination: Wait for somebody to screw up royally. He's going to hang on and wait to see if Obama has a "Gary Hart" moment where he's derailed by scandal, or if Clinton has a "'Scanner' moment" where her head implodes from frustration.

Bill Richardson

Where he is: A distant fourth, but still close enough to involved in the debates for the next few weeks. He's still hanging on for a V.P. nod from whoever wins the nomination, but unfortunately for him, the more he talks, the less chance he's got. He just doesn't sound too bright in these discussions.

How he got there: He's riding that fervent "Lovable Oaf With Lots Of Experience" crest. He is likable, and he does have lots of experience in energy and foreign policy. But people are realizing that as nice as that sounds, when you look at the state of the world, he apparently didn't accomplish much. That may not be entirely factual, but again, perception is reality in politics.

What he needs to do to win the nomination: Make a call to "a guy" who can make Clinton, Obama, and Edwards "befall tragic accidents". That's pretty much his only hope.

Roger