Quick Politics Fix

*Yes, I semi-lifted that title from a segment on Hardball. I'm sure Chris Matthews is gonna be totally pissed.

There's been a debate or two, and an absurdity or three, since the last politics thing I wrote. So, here's a quick (at least comparatively quick for me) take on what's up right now, and what to look for in the coming weeks.

1. Democrat electability: Since the Clinton wins in New Hampshire and Nevada, the pundits (and Republicans) are now spouting the "it looks like Clinton will be the nominee" rhetoric again. The pundits are doing it because it's easy, and she's the one they predicted would get the nomination way-back-when, so it makes them feel smart. The Republicans are doing it because they have a better chance at beating her in the general election than they do Obama. For all you Democrats and left-leaning centrists out there, I've written this a time or two before, but I think it bears repeating once again: the one phrase that makes Republicans and conservative voters wake up in the middle of the night in a cold, nightmarish sweat is the phrase "President Hillary Clinton". They will run the nastiest, most no-holds-barred campaign we have ever seen and pull every unsavory political trick imaginable to make sure the Clintons don't get back into the White House. And if they do get in, there is no way that she/they will be able to accomplish anything, because all congressional votes will go straight down party lines. So, Democrats, go ahead and nominate Hillary Clinton if you want four more years of snarky, redundant "red state vs. blue state" bickering, with nothing ever moving forward.

2. What to expect from Obama: He's proven he can win "middle America" with his win in Iowa. He's about to prove he can win full black support with a win in the South Carolina primary on Saturday. He's proven that he can win bipartisan support on issues because of his comments about Reagan and the conservative movement of the last decade (which the Clintons made the mistake of losing their minds over). So now what? His main obstacle, as I see it, is the "experience and details" issue. He needs to hammer into our heads (not just say it once or twice) exactly what he plans to do, in over-our-heads terms, about the economy and foreign policy. He also needs to work hard to get endorsements from experienced economists and foreign policy experts.

Right now he's also letting the "Clinton machine" get into his head, and is engaging with them in the political slugfest. But the Clintons are like a political Mike Tyson, and they will bite your ear off. He just needs to keep jabbing them to keep them at bay and wear them down with body blows, then wait for the right moment for an uppercut to the chin to put them on the canvas. On the same note, as far as the politics game goes, he needs to work on his "soundbite politics". One of the things that makes him likeable is that this isn't his nature; he understands nuance, and likes to give complete answers to complex questions. Debates that require 15-to-30-second answers and playing smack-talk ping-pong through the press just isn't his game. But unfortunately, the world we live in requires a certain talent at this, and he needs to find a way to hold his own in that arena to stay competitive, without losing who is and playing the Clintons' game.

3. Republicans -- Romney vs. McCain vs. Rudy? I've pretty much made up my mind that there's not a Republican in the race I can really see myself voting for, so I haven't been paying as close attention to them. One thing I know, is that Mitt Romney is a piece or work. He seems to have sort of solidified his message, which means nothing other than that he's seen what "polls well" for him, and he's going with it. He also shamelessly lifts ideas from other candidates and claims them as his own, particularly Barack Obama's. You never heard him utter the phrase "Washington is broken" until it started working from Obama a few weeks ago, and now he's running as the "change candidate". In tonight's debate, he even went so far as to directly steal Obama's mantra by saying the words "you can't keep putting the same people in power over and over again, and expecting a different result". He's just flat nauseating. He did say one thing that made sense tonight, which was, "The thought of Bill Clinton back in the White House with nothing to do is something I just can't imagine..." It doesn't really score points for him with me, I just agree with the sentiment. Without being able to make executive decisions, Bill Clinton will inevitably find some brouhaha to stir up. Yay.

It's looking like Rudy Giuliani really screwed his campaign by waiting until Florida to get in on the primaries. He underestimated the buzz the other races would generate for the other candidates, and now nobody really cares about him. And after Romney pretty much won tonight's debate (in part because the candidates all agreed ahead of time not to "go negative" like the Democrats, so nobody could call him on his bullshit), Giuliani looks to be about done.

John McCain is still the same as he ever was, and he's not playing the "hate the Democrats" game like the other guys. He's saying the party line rhetoric, like "they'll raise taxes and raise spending", which is required of him, but it's really code for "I'm a centrist" by not going too snarky and glib about the Democrats. He did say "I'll choose my country over my party every single time", which you have to like also.

Mike Huckabee is still playing the "religion card", and has fallen way behind in all the polls. I still bet on him as the nominee for Vice President to whoever the Republican presidential nominee is.

Roger